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2021 Trade Outlook for U.S. Agriculture

According to the first quarter trade outlook report released by the USDA this month, U.S. agricultural exports are up $5 billion to a record $157 billion. With agricultural imports projected at $137.5 billion, U.S. agricultural trade outlook is looking strong with a $19.5 billion surplus.

The USDA forecast for the next decade shows incremental growth that surpasses $180 billion in U.S. agricultural export trade by 2030. From a regional perspective, the biggest regional change in export trade is Asia with a $4.5 billion projected increase. The outlook for 2021 U.S. agricultural export trade for major importers is projected as follows:  

  • Asia: $31.5 billion 
  • Canada: $21 billion 
  • Mexico: $19.5 billion 
  • Europe: $11.4 billion 

The strong trade outlook is a major contributing factor to the rallying market prices experienced at the end of 2020 and into 2021. Optimism is growing that the strength in export trade will support the economic recovery of the sector and lessen the blow of a decline in federal aid on 2021 farm income.  

Learn more about the economic state of U.S. agriculture with insights from AgAmerica’s Chief Economist Dr. John Penson and visit our free digital farm publications library.

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