September 2, 2026

Q3 2026 Ag Trade Update: The Wins, Losses, and Uncertainty

The USDA’s Q3 2026 ag trade outlook offers a more encouraging picture for U.S. agriculture heading into 2027. But will it hold water?

In the third ag trade outlook report of the year, the USDA raised its FY2026 agricultural export forecast to $179.5 billion and forecasts exports to reach a record $186.5 billion in FY2027. If realized, this shift would shrink the ag trade deficit by 42 percent from $43 billion in 2025 to $25 billion in 2026.

Still, the outlook comes amid considerable uncertainty. The ongoing USMCA review, tariff changes, competition from major exporters such as Brazil, shifting demand from China, and new policies affecting beef imports could all influence how much of that projected export growth reaches producers’ bottom lines.

Keep reading for a high-level summary of the USDA’s third quarter trade outlook for 2026, along with insight into how ongoing trade dynamics could influence trade through the remainder of the year and into 2027.

Q3 2026 USDA Agricultural Trade Outlook: Key Takeaways

The USDA’s Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade is a quarterly assessment of U.S. agricultural exports and imports, including forecasts by commodity and trading partner.

Important Note: The August 2026 report uses policies in effect as of the August 12 WASDE release and assumes those policies remain in place throughout the forecast period. Any trade policy changes or events that occurred after this date are not reflected until the next quarterly outlook.

Here are the high-level numbers for U.S. ag trade in 2026:

Exports: $179.5B, up $3 billion from the May forecast of $176.5 billion.
Imports: $204.5B, down $1 billion from the May forecast.
Trade deficit: -$25B, an improvement of $4B from the May forecast and $17.9B from FY2025.

This report also included a first glimpse into projected numbers for U.S. ag trade in 2027:

Exports: $186.5B, a new record if realized.
Imports: $211B.
Trade deficit: -$24.5B.

Several key conclusions emerge from these projections.

The U.S. agricultural trade deficit is moving in the right direction.
The U.S. is still expected to remain a net agricultural importer for the fourth year in a row.
The improvement is being driven primarily by stronger export expectations rather than a fundamental reversal in the U.S. agricultural trade balance.

How will 2026 trade events influence this outlook, and what should producers know beyond the USDA numbers?

Strengths and Weaknesses in the 2027 U.S. Ag Trade Outlook

The third quarter 2026 ag trade outlook points to several areas of meaningful export strength, but the gains are not evenly distributed across U.S. agriculture.

For example, soybeans, soybean meal, corn, dairy products, tree nuts, and horticultural products account for much of the increase in the export forecast.

Unfortunately, not all commodities share that growth.

Rice exports are forecast to decline slightly.
Soybean oil exports are projected to fall substantially from prior-year levels.
Sorghum export values remain below recent peaks.
Beef exports are expected to remain relatively flat despite their high value.

The broader takeaway here is that export growth is becoming more favorable, but producers should not assume that stronger national export numbers will translate equally across commodities. Competition, demand, and trade policies all influence how global demand will affect a specific farm’s revenue.

Soybeans

Soybeans are the primary driver of export growth and remain highly dependent on Chinese demand.

USDA’s August forecast included significant upward revisions for both soybeans and soybean meal.

FY2027 soybean exports are forecast at $21.9 billion, making soybeans one of the largest contributors to overall export gains. Soybean meal exports are expected to reach a record $7.6 billion, reflecting strong global feed demand.

For U.S. soybean producers, the combination of competitive prices, ample supplies, and renewed Chinese demand is a more encouraging export picture than the one USDA presented earlier this year. The question now is whether that demand can hold as U.S. soybeans continue competing with Brazil and other major suppliers.

Corn

Corn exports remain a bright spot for U.S. ag trade, but the global market is competitive.

At $19.1 billion, corn exports are projected to remain the largest grain export category by value in FY2027.

The outlook reflects continued demand for U.S. corn in global feed, food and fuel markets. Strong export volume also underscores the importance of international markets for U.S. corn producers, particularly as domestic supplies remain ample and producers look for opportunities to move production into global markets.

For U.S. corn producers, the export outlook provides a positive demand signal heading into FY2027. However, competition from other major exporters and shifting trade policies remain important factors to watch as producers evaluate how global demand could affect prices, basis, and farm revenue.

Horticultural Products

Horticultural product exports are strong, but so are the imports.

Demand remains strong across many international markets, helping support one of the most diversified segments of U.S. agricultural trade.

Horticultural exports are forecast to reach $45.5 billion in FY2027, making them the largest U.S. agricultural export category. Tree nut exports are expected to rise to $13.0 billion, while fresh and processed fruit and vegetable exports also show growth.

Unlike some row crops that rely heavily on a handful of export destinations, many fruit, vegetable, and specialty crop producers benefit from a broader mix of global buyers.

However, specialty crop producers continue to navigate a complex and highly competitive trade environment. A recent Farm Bureau analysis found that since 2010, U.S. fruit production has declined 32 percent and vegetable production has fallen 10 percent, while fresh fruit and vegetable imports have each increased about 70 percent.

“When we look at a lot of our bulk commodities, grains, there isn’t an ag deficit. We are still exporting more value than the value we’re bringing in. Where we see a lot of the value coming into the country is in your horticulture and your tropical products.”

– Danny Munch, American Farm Bureau Federation

Animal Products

Animal product exports remain a strength, but not every livestock sector is benefiting equally from current trade conditions.

Livestock, poultry and dairy exports are forecast to reach $40.7 billion in FY2027, making animal products one of the largest contributors to U.S. agricultural exports. Dairy exports are expected to reach $10.8 billion, pork exports $7.6 billion, and beef exports $8.1 billion.

Among the livestock sectors, dairy remains one of the brightest spots in U.S. ag trade. Strong international demand and competitive U.S. pricing have helped keep dairy exports on a record pace, reinforcing dairy’s growing importance to overall agricultural export performance. Pork exports also continue to benefit from steady global demand.

U.S. beef export predictions remain relatively flat and come at a time when the industry is feeling burned by a recent decision to allow the import of 300,000 metric tons of lean beef trimmings in an attempt to offset consumer costs.

These events highlight an important distinction within the broader ag trade outlook. While export demand remains supportive for many animal products, it’s not the only factor influencing producer decisions. Import competition, trade policy developments, animal health issues, food safety concerns, and shifting consumer demand trends also shape market conditions.

How are Tariffs and Trade Policies Influencing the U.S. Ag Trade Outlook?

As mentioned earlier, trade policy and events that took place after the August 12^th deadline are not reflected in this third quarter forecast. While export prospects have improved, producers must continue to navigate the potential market disruptions that can result from tariffs, trade disputes, and policy changes.

Agriculture is particularly exposed to trade disruptions because commodities are globally traded and often face competition from multiple suppliers. When tariffs raise the cost of U.S. products overseas, buyers can shift toward competitors. Retaliatory tariffs can have a similar effect, while tariffs on imported products can increase costs for U.S. businesses and consumers. Impacts of these tariffs could sway in either direction, resulting in market share loss or new terms that expand market access.

That makes the 2026/2027 U.S. ag trade environment especially difficult to predict, given recent developments.

The USMCA Review and Ongoing Tensions

Mexico and Canada remain the two largest destinations for U.S. agricultural exports, with 2027 predictions of $32 billion to Mexico and $29 billion to Canada, making USMCA negotiations a central topic of the U.S. ag trade outlook.

Negotiations with Mexico appear to be progressing, while Canadian discussions have presented more challenges. USDA Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Luke Lindberg recently said negotiations with Mexico were moving forward but described Canada as more difficult, citing disagreements involving U.S. alcohol and dairy sales.

U.S. Cattle Ranchers Beef with Recent Import Decisions

Agricultural trade affects producers through imports as well as exports, and that distinction is particularly relevant for cattle producers right now.

The administration’s announcement to temporarily allow an additional 300,000 metric tons of imported beef to enter the U.S. with lower tariffs for 90 days has drawn significant criticism from cattle organizations concerned that increased imports will weaken domestic cattle markets and discourage herd rebuilding at a time when the U.S. cattle herd remains near multi-decade lows.

“While America’s cattle producers share the goal of keeping groceries affordable for consumers, flooding the market with government-subsidized, below-market beef is not the way to rebuild the American cattle herd.”

– Colin Woodall, National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA)

Impacts of U.S. Ag Trade Outlook on Producers and Landowners

The USDA agricultural trade outlook provides more than a mere snapshot.

Stronger export demand can support commodity prices and improve revenue expectations. Conversely, lost market access due to tariffs or increased foreign competition can put pressure on prices and margins. Those changes can affect everything from marketing decisions and working capital to equipment purchases, land acquisitions and debt management.

The U.S. ag trade outlook is one input in a broader financial strategy. Evaluating your farm’s cash flow under different trade market scenarios can help an operation be ready to respond quickly when conditions change.

The next Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade is scheduled for November 24, 2026.

Unlocking Financial Flexibility in an Uncertain Trade Environment

Trade conditions can change quickly. Your financing strategy should give you room to adapt.

Whether you’re looking to refinance existing debt, access land equity, acquire additional acreage, or strengthen liquidity, AgAmerica offers flexible financing solutions designed around the needs of farmers, ranchers, and rural landowners.

Explore AgAmerica’s agricultural financing solutions today to ensure you have the working capital you need, before you need it.