Agricultural Policy Matters in the 2024 Election
We can’t foresee the future of agricultural policy, but we can influence it.
As the 2024 election approaches, uncertainty looms over agricultural policy, leaving many landowners, farmers, and ranchers anxious about their operations’ future. Rising input costs, fluctuating crop prices, and growing operational debt have created a challenging economic environment for agricultural producers right now.
Empathizing with these concerns, AgAmerica is here to provide reassurance and financial stability. The precarious future of the 2024 presidential election and the next farm bill has many operators in wait-and-see mode. Like you, we wish we could foresee the future. But outside of psychic abilities, the next best course of action is to stay informed on potential outcomes and do what you can to secure your financial future now.
“The best way to predict the future is to create it.”
– Peter Drucker, Management Consultant, Author, and Educator
Key Agricultural Policies to Watch During and After the 2024 Election
The 2024 presidential election could bring significant changes to agricultural policy, impacting a range of ag-related topics. From taxes to tariffs, understanding where each candidate stands on these ag policy issues is part of effectively preparing for either outcome.
Keep reading to find unbiased summaries of key agricultural policy issues and general partisan stances on each topic.
Tax Policy Changes
Tax reforms, particularly around estate and capital gains taxes, could have huge implications for landowners and the future of the American family farm. With the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 set to expire in 2026, several tax-related changes could occur if left unaddressed.
The Democratic Perspective
The Democratic platform supports allowing at least some of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act to expire, particularly those benefiting high-income earners and corporations, arguing that these cuts have exacerbated income inequality and disproportionately favor the wealthy. One key tax reform under consideration is removing the stepped-up basis for gains in excess of $5MM per individual or $10MM per couple (or ($5.25MM and $10.5MM, respectively, when combined with existing real estate exemptions). This change, along with an increase in the capital gains tax rate, is part of the Democratic approach to raising revenue from higher-income households. While a majority of U.S. farmers will fall below the $5MM/individual or $10MM/couple threshold, farm groups like the American Farm Bureau have expressed concern regarding the proposed stepped-up basis removal and its impact on family farms’ ability to transfer assets without a significant tax burden.
The Republican Perspective
The Republican platform generally advocates for extending the tax cuts from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, arguing that these cuts have significantly contributed to economic growth, job creation, and relief for middle-class families and businesses. They emphasize that allowing the tax cuts to expire would result in higher taxes, potentially stifling economic progress and undermining the benefits achieved. Republicans believe that maintaining these tax cuts is crucial for sustaining economic momentum and supporting continued investment and job creation.
Environmental Policies
Environmental policy reform remains a pivotal issue, just as it was in the last election, particularly for those in agriculture. Most major farm groups advocate for cooperative, voluntary programs over regulatory mandates when addressing environmental concerns. They stress that collaboration, rather than strict government oversight, will yield better outcomes for both agricultural operations and environmental sustainability. Both major political parties present distinct visions for the future of environmental regulations and their impact on agricultural operations.
The Democratic Perspective
If Kamala Harris wins the presidency, it is expected that environmental policies will closely align with the current Biden administration’s approach to promoting measures aimed at addressing climate change. Her past support for the Green New Deal and her role in advancing the Inflation Reduction Act underscore a commitment to rigorous environmental standards. The Democratic platform envisions a path to net-zero agricultural emissions by 2050, which includes expanding voluntary incentive programs that encourage farmers and ranchers to adopt environmentally friendly practices. Despite her history, Harris’ stance on fracking has evolved. While she previously opposed it, her current position is more nuanced, reflecting the need to balance climate goals with economic realities in key states.
The Republican Perspective
In contrast, Donald Trump’s environmental policy stance is centered around de-regulation and represents a stark shift from the current administration’s approach. Trump has been vocal in his support for fossil fuels and has promised to dismantle significant portions of the current administration’s climate policies if elected. His agenda focuses on increasing fossil fuel production, including oil, natural gas, and coal. Trump’s environmental policy would likely involve rolling back regulations designed to limit carbon emissions and support renewable energy, aiming to lower energy costs and increase domestic fossil fuel production. Republicans argue that current climate regulations are overly restrictive and harm economic growth. They propose alternative solutions that protect air and water while promoting energy independence and economic expansion. One thing to watch is how Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a long-time advocate of environmental conservation and regenerative farming practices who recently endorsed Trump, could influence his environmental policy for agriculture if elected.
Agricultural Trade Policies
Trade is one of the more popular topics in this presidential race, with a forecasted agricultural trade deficit of $42.5 billion in 2025. Each major political platform has similar yet varied strategies for approaching this issue.
The Democratic Perspective
Under a Democratic administration, agricultural trade policy is likely to follow a similar approach as the current one, which has focused on outreach and diversification of our existing trade partners to reduce reliance on more volatile trade partners like China. While less vocal about using tariffs as a negotiation tool, the current administration has maintained tariffs on certain Chinese imports and plans to continue to do so in an effort to protect American industries without creating too much tension in this precarious relationship. This balancing act could influence crop pricing and market access, as farmers may face fluctuating export opportunities depending on how these trade relationships evolve.
The Republican Perspective
The Republican approach to agricultural trade policy would likely involve a more aggressive stance on tariffs, particularly towards China. Trump has been a leading advocate of using tariffs as a tool to renegotiate trade terms and protect U.S. industries from unfair trade practices. His administration’s focus on increasing tariffs could lead to heightened trade tensions and potential retaliation from trading partners, affecting market access for U.S. farmers and potentially driving up crop prices. Trump’s trade policy emphasizes boosting domestic production and reducing reliance on foreign imports, which could result in stricter trade barriers and a tougher stance on trade negotiations. This approach might appeal to those who favor protectionist measures, but could also lead to complications in international markets.
The Farm Bill and Support Programs
With the current 2018 farm bill already extended by one year, some programs are set to expire on September 30, 2024. Lawmakers will need to act to extend or replace the farm bill to prevent the reactivation of laws from 1938 and 1949. There is mixed commentary on whether a farm bill will pass this year amid the heat of election season.
“If the farm bill is not passed this year, agricultural producers will struggle to obtain credit during the 2025 production year. That will come as a blow to farmers who have experienced low commodity prices and high input costs that have reduced their equity and affected their cash flow in ways that haven’t been seen in years.”
– Caleb Hopkins, Vice Chairman of the Ag and Rural Bankers Committee
Even so, there has been little discussion among both candidate platforms so far as Congress continues to argue over the best path forward.
The Democratic Perspective
Democrats, including Senator Debbie Stabenow, have advocated for updates to the farm bill that emphasize enhanced support for conservation programs, rural development, improved access to subsidies for smaller farms, and a bolstered food assistance program. Under a Democratic presidency, there may be a push for a new farm bill that reflects these priorities. However, achieving these goals will depend on navigating partisan gridlock and securing legislative support.
The Republican Perspective
If Republicans gain control of the Senate, and John Boozman becomes chair of the Senate Agriculture Committee, there could be a significant shift in farm bill priorities. The Republican focus may include more emphasis on reducing federal spending, streamlining farm programs, and supporting commodity-specific subsidies. In response to a questionnaire sent by the American Farm Bureau Federation, the Trump administration stated that “improvements must be made to Reference Prices, Crop Insurance, Dairy Margin Coverage, and more Specialty Crop Insurance.”
Immigration Policies
Last but certainly not least, immigration policy has easily been the most popular topic during debates outside of the economy. While border control and related policies have been a huge part of the discussion, access to farm labor and H-2A program reform also fall into this bucket and have largely been left out. Still, the results of immigration policy reform could directly impact American farmers, who have already faced a seven percent increase in labor costs from 2023 to 2024.
The Democratic Perspective
Democrats have faced a challenging shift in public opinion, with increasing calls for stricter border controls despite their previous emphasis on a more humane immigration system. In response to record border crossings, the Biden administration has adopted measures that align more closely with previous administration policies to curb asylum claims and limit unauthorized immigration. The 2024 Democratic platform reflects a dual approach—enhancing border security and deterring unauthorized entry, while also expanding legal pathways for immigration. This focus is likely to remain on balancing security with humanitarian considerations, striving to protect undocumented immigrants already residing in the U.S. while promoting comprehensive immigration reform. In terms of farm labor, the Democratic party has generally advocated for farmworker protections and wage requirements and has stated they will prioritize, “making the [H-2A] application process more transparent, making visas more accessible to employers, and supporting employers who comply with the rules, so they are not undercut by those who don’t,” according to a recent American Farm Bureau Federation questionnaire.
The Republican Perspective
The Republican platform, on the other hand, has committed to a more aggressive immigration stance, promising to revive and expand the former president’s past policies. This includes calls for mass deportations, the end of birthright citizenship, and stricter border control measures. For Republicans, immigration remains a top priority, with a significant portion of the party’s base viewing it as a critical issue. This platform’s policies would likely include increased border enforcement, significant reductions in illegal immigration, and a focus on reversing what is viewed as lenient immigration policies. This approach reflects a broader Republican emphasis on reducing illegal immigration and reinforcing national security. When asked how the Trump administration will navigate the ongoing farm labor shortage, they responded that they “will prioritize merit-based immigration, ensuring those admitted to our country contribute to our economy and strengthen our country.”
Your Voice Matters in Agricultural Policy
As the political landscape shifts, the policies shaping agriculture will be influenced by those who participate. Understanding where candidates stand on critical issues and voting accordingly ensures that your voice is heard. The outcome of this election could directly impact your farm’s future. Taking the time to research and engage in the process is essential for protecting your interests and shaping the future of agricultural policy.
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Given all the uncertainty surrounding the election, it’s more important than ever to focus on what you can control—your farm’s financial future. You don’t need to wait for the election. Assess your current debt structure and evaluate refinancing opportunities now.
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