2026 Farm Income Forecast to Help Producers Plan Ahead 

American farmers and lenders are headed into 2026 missing a critical benchmark—the USDA’s annual farm income forecast. 

Originally scheduled for December 2, the USDA’s last farm income forecast report for 2025 was canceled due to data disruptions caused by the federal government shutdown. The USDA’s agricultural trade report was also delayed, leaving producers, lenders, and landowners without the typical year-end data that guides budgets, credit planning, and land value expectations. 

While 2026 begins with more questions than answers, AgAmerica is committed to helping producers navigate this unique environment with analysis, insight, and tailored financial solutions. 

Why the Farm Income Forecast Matters 

This gap in farm income data exacerbates an already uncertain market, making it more challenging to forecast revenues, assess land markets, and plan for financing needs. More specifically, the USDA farm income forecasts serve several critical functions: 

• Anchoring expectations for net farm income. 
• Signaling sector-wide profitability and liquidity trends. 
• Informing land value projections and collateral risk. 
• Guiding marketing, planting, and financing decisions. 

Without it, producers face greater difficulty projecting revenue, anticipating cash flow, and making marketing decisions. On the financial side, lenders must work harder to accurately benchmark credit risk and price assets during sales, leases, or refinancing. 

What We Know About Farm Income Headed Into 2026 

Even without the USDA’s farm income report, the ag community isn’t completely flying blind—if you know where to look (this article is a good place to start). Thanks to a combination of partial-year data and market signals, here is a high-level overview of U.S. farm income conditions as we wrap up 2025. 

Farm Income and Credit Conditions 

Net farm income showed modest stabilization in 2025. Unfortunately, much of that support came from government programs rather than true market strength. Margin pressure remains persistent—particularly for grain producers—as low prices and elevated costs continue to squeeze operating budgets. Meanwhile, higher interest rates are limiting borrowing options and straining repayment capacity for those up for renewal or in variable-rate terms.  

This margin squeeze was evident in bankruptcy filings. Farm bankruptcies rose in the first half of 2025, with Arkansas, Iowa, and Georgia alone accounting for a quarter of all filings. Younger operators, in particular, are navigating significant financial headwinds for the first time, while more established producers report tighter margins than they’ve seen in years but have experience (and often equity) on their side when it comes to managing risk in a cyclical downturn.  

Commodity Market Trends 

Commodity markets heading into 2026 remain mixed, with notable differences across sectors. Grain producers continue to face softer export demand, heightened competition from South America, and price volatility that complicates marketing decisions. Soybean markets, in particular, are feeling the pressure of ample global supplies and uncertain demand from key importers such as China. Wheat has seen brief rallies tied to geopolitical tensions and weather concerns, but prices remain below levels needed to improve margins for many growers meaningfully. 

Livestock producers are entering the year in a comparatively stronger position. The U.S. cattle market remains supported by tight supplies and solid consumer demand, helping stabilize balance sheets. Dairy margins improved slightly in late 2025 after a period of significant strain, but the outlook still hinges on export demand and input prices. 

Specialty crop markets are facing their own set of pressures, with little government support compared to their row crop counterparts. Labor remains one of the most significant cost drivers, with rising wages and availability challenges squeezing profit margins. At the same time, certain permanent crops, such as almonds and pistachios, have seen firmer pricing due to improved export demand and tighter global supplies, while fresh produce markets remain highly sensitive to weather disruptions and shifting consumer preferences. 

Input Costs and Inflationary Pressures 

Fertilizer markets remain elevated heading into 2026, with several major nutrients still priced higher than they were a year ago, despite some month-to-month softening. Trade uncertainty and supply constraints continue to influence costs. Labor and insurance costs continue to rise, adding to fixed expenses, while persistently high interest rates raise the cost of borrowing for operating capital. 

Land Values and Asset Trends 

Farmland values remained stable to slightly rising in 2025, with cropland averaging around $5,830 per acre and pastureland near $1,920 per acre. Strong demand for quality land continues to support prices, but higher financing costs and profitability pressures are slowing growth and widening the gap between premium and marginal parcels. For landowners, this means equity remains strong, but careful planning is essential when considering sales, refinancing, or expansion in 2026. 

AgAmerica’s 2026 Farm Income Forecast 

Based on this information, we can make a few predictions with confidence as we plan for the coming year. 

Margins will stay tight.  

Crop producers will face the most significant pressure, with more operations likely needing working capital support or debt restructuring. While the $12 billion government aid package offers short-term relief, stable farm income over the next few years will depend on market-driven returns. 

Credit conditions will lower borrowing options. 

Elevated rates are expected to persist. Proactive planning, repayment capacity, and financial discipline will continue to be central to successful farm operations. 

Trade is the wildcard. 

Farm income for grain and oilseed in 2026 will largely be determined by global trade activity. Livestock and dairy are better positioned, but global competition will affect pricing power across the board. 

The land market will stay strong. 

As 2025 demonstrated, land values are remarkably resilient to market disruptions. We expect land value appreciation to remain slower than in past years, but will continue to rise over the long term. Institutional and investor demand will persist and become increasingly competitive for highly productive land.  

Four Strategies to Offset Farm Income Risk in 2026 

With these predictions in mind, here are a few proactive steps producers can take now to safeguard their operational finances in 2026.  

1. Strengthen Liquidity and Monitor Working Capital 

Cash buffers are critical in high-rate environments. While working capital alone does not fix underlying challenges, closely monitoring fluctuation provides the time needed to adjust operations and financial strategy. 

2. Reassess Debt Structure 

If liquidity is tight, refinancing long-term farm debt into lower-payment structures can improve short-term cash flow. Just be sure to align amortization schedules with revenue cycles whenever possible. 

3. Prioritize High-ROI Investments 

When it comes to investment decisions, capital spending should remain disciplined amid uncertainty. Focus on mechanization, efficiency upgrades, and water management improvements. Utilize government resources when possible. 

4. Build Flexibility Into 2026 Plans 

Prepare for a range of price and cost outcomes by modeling multiple marketing and cash-flow scenarios. Mitigate risk through diversification—across crops, livestock, and customer markets—so your operation isn’t overly dependent on any single revenue source. 

Helping Producers Build Resilience No Matter What’s Ahead 

Data limitations may make planning more complex, but producers are not without resources. Smart strategy, disciplined financial management, and strong lending partnerships are key to navigating uncertainty. 

At AgAmerica, our mission is to ensure the lasting success of American agriculture. To support this, we provide: 

• Customized land-backed financing that preserves liquidity. 
• Resources to support decision-making during volatile market cycles. 
• Expertise to help producers plan for both short- and long-term success. 

Contact an AgAmerica lending specialist today to build a resilient and adaptive 2026 financial plan.